~~~ H u r r i c a n e N e w s ~~~

This is Hurricane News from the PixelKingdoms Tropical Center (PKTC)

  • Hurricane Season starts in 3 days (as of writing this), on June 1st

Tropical Activity Update (May 28th)

  • AW03 (desginated by PKTC) - GFS & ECMWF support a Subtropical Depression or Storm ~May 30-31st, although not much of a low pressure. (20% chance of development / 3d)
  • AW02 - EC-AIFS & GFS models support a Tropical Depression that could transition and develop into a Tropical storm over the 27-28C waters of the Gulf of Mexico/America on June 12-13th (40% / 14d)
  • AW04 - GFS model shows strong cyclonic signatures that show a well-developed Tropical Storm form over the Bahamas and continue along the Gulf Stream on June 10th (30% / 14d)
  • 01E - A Tropical Depression has recently formed in the Eastern Pacific, forecasted to have peak sustained winds of 65mph.

ACE: 0

More updates to come

Notes to remember (viewers)

  • AW## = Area to Watch. Name designated by PKTC.

Websites:

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bbc scripting lookin different

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Sorry if I don’t know what you’re saying :[

Btw I will definitely give tropical update tomorrow.

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01E PKTC Update

Intensification

  • Although not official to NHC, upon further investigation by PKTC, Satellite Imagery suggests that 01E has a Dvorak rating of T2.5, quickly transitioning into T3. This suggests that the storm has an estimated windspeed of 40mph, which may become 45mph in the next 2 hours. The storm also now (according to PKTC) has a peak projected strength of 70mph, possibly 75mph. Further investigation will resume shortly tomorrow morning at around 7:30am CDT (12:30pm UTC)

Summary

  • (unofficial) 01E has possibly, shown by satellite imagery, become a Tropical Storm. This will be the first named storm in the EPAC this season. 40mph / 1004mb

Images


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01E Tropical Update

New Models

  • HWRF showing 52.4kt peak winds (~60mph)
  • HMON Showing 56.4kt peak winds (~65-70mph)
  • Both Models show a Min. MSLP of 1004mb right now, further confirming the PKTC Analysis of 40mph / 1004mb

Referenced Websites

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01E Update #3

8:00am CDT / 1:00pm UTC

Latest Official Update

  • The NHC has not increased the windspeed or lowered the pressure since the last update. The system remains at 35mph / 1006mb officially. The NHC does say that it has had “increased thunderstorm activity”, but data shows that surface-level winds have remained the same.

PKTC Analysis #2

  • While not official, our past estimate was 40mph / 1004mb. With increased apparent strengthening on satellite imagery (~T3), and models showing ~45-50mph now, we now believe that the storm is strengthening fast towards its peak, with winds of 50mph and a pressure of 1000mb. (50mph / 1000mb)

Images Referenced:



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is there anything going towards the southeast US?

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is there anything going towards the southeast US?

Not currently, although around June 9 (models are fairly consistent with this), a system could form that could become a weak tropical storm (45mph / 997mb). Another one could form on June 12-14 that could impact the Gulf Coast, with models saying a low pressure will form south of the Yucatan Peninsula, but the models are inconsistent with the formation of that, so pay attention to the June 9 storm (AW04). Thanks for asking!

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okay. because I’m headed down to NC that time of the year.

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On June 11th is when it is supposed to graze the coast of NC. 8:00AM EDT it will have a wind of ~50mph and a pressure of 989mb, with winds near Hatteras Cape (i think?) nearing 40mph. Glad I could help!

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thanks for the info! I will be closer to chimney rock if you know where that is, so I think I should be fine. Thanks!!

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You are welcome!

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By the way everyone, if you want to ask me questions, feel free to do so here! If you want to give me information about cyclones and other tropic-related things, go ahead! I would gladly appreciate it.

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Tropical Storm Alvin Update #4

NHC Official Advisory

  • Recently, the NHC has upgraded 01E into a Tropical Storm, giving it the name of Alvin. This is the first named storm in the EPAC this season. It has winds of 40mph and a pressure of 1005mb officially. The system is expected to strengthen over the warm waters and get to peak winds of 60mph, and head near Cabo San Lucas, going into the Sea of Cortez, and bringing rain to southwestern regions of the United States.

PKTC Analysis #3

  • Due to the organized look on satellite imagery (T3), and model data proving of such (44kts), the updated analysis shows a deepening and strengthening of the storm, with winds of 55mph and a pressure of 998mb.

More updates to come.

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Are there any future hurricanes hitting Latin America?

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Sorry that I didn’t respond that quickly. As of right now, not in the trustworthy range of models. Sometimes the models could say one will hit it, but it’s inconsistent and hard to tell from here. So, until further confirmation, no. (At least within 20 days.)

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This is Hurricane News from PKTC

Tropical Activity Update (May 29th)

  • AW02 (designated by PKTC) - We do believe that AW04 was AW02 with more recent models, hence associating AW02 with that forecasted system. AW02 is forecasted to become a powerful hurricane as Andrea on June 10th, grazing the Eastern Coast of the U.S. While models this far out tend to be inconsistent, these models are being very consistent, constantly showing over the past day a Bahamian storm rapidly intensifying along the East Coast. These models have been consistently getting the storm as stronger, which is why we are forecasting this to be a potential Category 1 in the future. (70% in 14d)
  • AW03 - Models are showing AW03 to be not as cyclonic as forecasted, and that is why we are dropping this Area to Watch soon. (<10% in 3d)
  • Tropical Storm Alvin - Tropical Storm Alvin has recently been designated by the NHC and is forecasted by the NHC to attain winds of 60mph. We are forecasting 65mph on this storm as it continues to head north and strengthen over 27-28C waters.

EPAC ACE: 0.25
NATL ACE: 0

More updates to come

Notes to remember:

  • AW## is designated by PKTC unofficially
  • ACE tracker is not always up-to-date.
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btw guys im changing my pfp, so…

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to a hurricane, woah

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Tropical Storm Alvin Update #5

NHC Official Update

  • The NHC has given a new strength to Alvin as they have noticed increased convection and colder cloud temps, along with stronger surface-level winds detected. The forecast does seem to be going the same way, and they have increased the winds to 60mph and a pressure of 999mb.

PKTC Analysis #4

  • PKTC has noticed the same, and has classified it unofficially as T3.5, roughly correlating to 62mph winds. We have gone with winds of 60mph and 995mb.

Forecasts

  • The storm is expected to peak later tonight and is forecasted by both the NHC and PKTC to reach 70mph.

More updates soon.

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