meh no one is doing anything so im just updating everything lol.
Should I add a Development Index for Invests and Areas to Watch?
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This is Hurricane News by PKTC
Tropical Activity Update (June 7th)
- AW02 (Designated by PKTC) - AW02 is forecasted to be a strong tropical storm or a hurricane as it heads northwest to Texas and Louisiana. Only one model has this system developing, hence us lowering the chance of development. (30% / 14d)
- Invest 92E - 92E is very organized, and if I were to guess on my scale would be a Development Index of 4/5. It currently might become a tropical depression within a day. More updates soon about the developing system. Later, it might Fujiwhara with 91E (>90% / 3d)
- Invest 91E - 91E is also getting organized, with my guess of its Dev. Index being 3/5. It might Fujiwhara with 92E as or after it develops into a Tropical Storm.
EPAC ACE: 1.39
NATL ACE: 0
More updates to come
Notes to remember:
- AW## is designated by PKTC unofficially
- ACE tracker is not always up to date.
- I AM NOT THE EXPERT. Do not always be taking my word on things, for I might be wrong.
Hurricane Tracker:
PKTC Hurricane Tracker - Google Slides
Tropical Storm Barbara Update #1
NHC Official Update
- The NHC has designated Invest 92E as Tropical Storm Barbara. The storm is currently intensifying fast, although not rapidly, and has a Dvorak rating of approximately T3.5. Models point towards the winds being 65mph right now, although the NHC says 60mph, and intensifying as it closes in on hurricane status. NHC has it as 60mph / 996mb
PKTC Analysis #1
- PKTC has been looking at models, SSTs, satellite imagery, etc. and has it at 65mph, following tons of models and satellite imagery. Models also show a quick deepening of the system, with its pressure falling at a rather quick rate, with a pressure of approximately 992mb. (65mph / 992mb)
Forecasts
- The storm is expected to intensify further in the warm waters (29.5C / 85F) of the Eastern Pacific and become a mid-Category 1. It is later expected to get close, possibly Fujiwhara (where storms spin around one point, like a binary star system), and get redirected south and redirect 03E with it.
More updates soon.
03E Update #1
NHC Official Update
- The NHC has designated Invest 91E as Tropical Depression 03E. This could be the third named storm of the 2025 EPAC Hurricane Season, and the NHC does forecast it. The NHC currently has it with winds of 35mph, and a pressure of 1001mb.
PKTC Analysis #1
- PKTC would have this storm as a tropical storm, but to not cause confusion, we are classifying this storm right now as a tropical depression, until the NHC designates it as the next tropical storm. We have it with winds of 35mph, and a pressure of 999mb.
Forecasts
- The storm is expected to turn into a tropical storm, possibly even a hurricane, as it gets close to Barbara and stalls as it Fujiwharas with Barbara, with them both dying off as 03E heads northeast, and Barbara heads southwest.
More updates soon.
alright this is getting out of hand
wdym
Hurricane Barbara Update #2
NHC Official Update
- The NHC has declared Barbara as a hurricane with winds of 75mph, after reviewing satellite imagery, as it has been said to be around T4.0, and a partial eyewall has formed. The storm can still intensify in the next few hours.
PKTC Analysis #2
- PKTC also has it as T4.0, correlating to 75mph winds, and the pressure is also around 991mb. Models say something close to this, further backing up the data.
Forecasts
- The storm can still intensify, possibly up to 80mph, before it moves into colder waters and weakens as it fujiwharas with Cosme.
More updates soon.
Tropical Storm Cosme Update #2
NHC Official Update
- The NHC has Cosme as a strong tropical storm with winds of 65mph and a pressure of 994mb. The NHC says that the storm could intensify into a hurricane in the coming hours.
PKTC Analysis #2
- PKTC has the storm at a Dvorak number of T3.5. This correlates to 65mph, which the NHC also says. Models also say something similar to the windspeed.
Forecasts
- The storm might intensify into a hurricane as it heads north, fujiwharas with Barbara, and emerge from it as a mid-tropical storm. It will later dissipate as it heads northeast towards the coast of Mexico.
More updates soon.
Tropical Storm Erick Update #2
NHC Official Update
- The NHC has Erick as a medium tropical storm, with winds of 50 mph and a pressure of 1001mb. This comes with a T3.0 satellite signature, which further proves it. Hurricane Warnings and Watches have been issued along the Southern Mexican Coastline, and a Hurricane Watch in Acapulco.
PKTC Analysis #1
- PKTC, with the evolution and quick convection development of the storm system, has the storm at 60mph following a T3.5 satellite signature (almost T4.0) and models backing it up.
Forecasts
- The storm is forecast to sharply turn northwest and head towards Acapulco, Mexico, as it quickly intensifies into possibly a Category 2 hurricane, with potential peak winds of 110mph as it makes landfall. PKTC has the storm peaking at 115mph, possibly becoming the first major hurricane, not just in the EPAC, but the entire NHEM so far this year.
More updates soon.
PKTC Hurricane Tracker - Google Slides
Hurricane Erick Update #2 (fr this time)
NHC Official Update
- The NHC has declared what-used-to-be Tropical Storm Erick as a hurricane earlier this morning. It has since increased the intensity even higher to winds of 85mph with a pressure of 984mb. This storm is starting to rapidly intensify as it gets closer to the Southern Coast of Mexico.
PKTC Analysis #1
- PKTC also has the storm at winds of 85mph, but climbing as the storm develops an eye (Reference will be below). The models cannot support this due to them being outdated (this was still when the storm was 65mph or 75mph).
Forecasts
- The storm is expected to continue the rapid intensification as it heads northwest and make landfall as a major hurricane (officially according to the NHC) just to the east of Acapulco, Mexico.
More updates soon.
PKTC Hurricane Tracker - Google Slides
Hurricane Erick Update #3
NHC Official Update
- Hurricane Erick is now very close to a Category 3 Major Hurricane with winds of 110mph and a pressure of 967mb. The storm is going to be intercepted by a C-130 again as they collect more data on the rapid intensification of the storm.
PKTC Analysis #3
- PKTC also says the storm has 110mph winds, and potentially more given the rapid intensification the storm is going through. Satellite data backs this up as the storm has gained an eye, and a well-defined one at that, and has become better organized and rigid. IR Satellite also shows -80C temps, proving even more that this storm is at or near major hurricane status.
Forecasts
- The storm is expected to intensify even more, and based off of the Discussion of the storm in the NHC, the storm could possibly strengthen into a Category 4 at landfall. The storm is forecast to make landfall at about 6AM CDT, so I probably won’t make a landfall update when it does make landfall.
More updates soon.
Seems really rough. We are going to get a derecho soon, so be prepared. All our power was out for a few hours, as I got hit by a massive storm, but this is only the beginning. I was home with my little sis, we were watching typical stuff, and I noticed the lights started to flicker. (I am very aware of my surroundings in the slightest way) Now, about 15 minutes before that, tornado sirens and alarm systems began to go off. I asked my sister to come downstairs, as it would be best if she is in my sight and on the ground floor. Soon after that the storm got worse, the rain was circulating. My county was on the severe storm and tornado watch. I didn’t have my phone with me, but tomorrow will be much worse, so I’ll record the blackout and storm for my channel. Anyone who wants more cool info on the storm, I’m happy to share.
Major Hurricane Erick Landfall Update
(Update #4)
Welcome back to PKTC as we have to tell you about Major Hurricane Erick once again.
Major Hurricane Erick has made a devastating landfall in Southern Mexico with winds of 125mph and is forecasted to bring 8ft of storm surge to the coast. This is the worst storm to make landfall in Mexico in the month of June. Overnight, Hurricane Erick strengthened into a middle-grade Category 4, with winds of 145mph and a pressure of 939mb. Personally, given the EWRC signs and land interaction, I thought that the storm would peak at 130mph. This storm defied expectations (Honestly Beryl but EPAC) and proved that even the worst storms can be the earliest. Now, onto the updates.
NHC Official Update
- Hurricane Erick has made landfall, as of 7am CDT / 12pm UTC, with winds of 125mph. The storm is a very strong one and will have devastating impacts that may be visible for months. The storm is rapidly weakening due to mountains, so this terror may not be long-lasting.
PKTC Analysis #4
- According to us, the PKTC, we believe something along the lines of NHC. Models have become unreliable for a while now, so satellite and RECON data is all we can get, and we believe that the storm has made landfall with winds of 125mph. The reason why it wasn’t anything higher was because of high land interaction. We also believe that the storm has a pressure of 952mb.
Forecasts
- The storm is expected to encounter the harsh terrain of Central-Southern Mexico, and is expected to weaken substantially, if not dissipate within the next 24 hours.
Probably not more updates soon on this storm (not including track).
This is Hurricane News by PKTC
Tropical Activity Update (June 19th) - We’re back!
- AW09 (Designated by PKTC) - AW09 is forecast to form behind Erick, becoming TD 06E, and maybe 2 storms will develop out of this Area to Watch based on future models. (20% / 7d)
- Major Hurricane Erick - Major Hurricane Erick has made a devastating landfall in Southern Mexico and is now going to bring storm surge, rain, and high winds to the area. It will later fizzle out over the mountains of this area, making these impacts not last long.
EPAC ACE: 14.7
NATL ACE: 0
More updates to come
Notes to remember:
- AW## is designated by PKTC unofficially
- ACE tracker is not always up to date.
- I AM NOT THE EXPERT. Do not always be taking my word on things, for I might be wrong.
Hurricane Tracker:
PKTC Hurricane Tracker - Google Slides
This is Hurricane News by PKTC
Tropical Activity Update (June 23rd)
- AW09 (Designated by PKTC) - AW09 is forecast to form within the next 7 days, likely becoming a named storm. Some rotation, but loose, is visible and convection is also visible. Development Index: 2/5 (10% / 2d)
- 90L - Invest 90L in the Atlantic has been designated by the NHC, and the NHC says that it might become a “short-lived tropical depression”. This is the first invest of the 2025 NATL Hurricane Season. Tight rotation is visible, along with sustained convection on the north side. Development Index: 4/5 (70% / 2d)
EPAC ACE: 16.1
NATL ACE: 0
More updates to come
Notes to remember:
- AW## is designated by PKTC unofficially
- ACE tracker is not always up to date.
- I AM NOT THE EXPERT. Do not always be taking my word on things, for I might be wrong.
Hurricane Tracker:
PKTC Hurricane Tracker - Google Slides
Oh yeahhhh!!!
usaf vs hurricane hugo
Tropical Storm Andrea Update #1
NHC Official Update
- Tropical Storm Andrea has formed in the North Atlantic, becoming the first named storm of the 2025 NATL Hurricane Season. The storm has developed, albeit with little convection and a small wind field, with winds of 40mph. The storm developed along a high-pressure area, hence the higher-than-normal pressure of 1014mb.
PKTC Analysis
- PKTC does also believe the storm is at 40mph, but with a slightly higher pressure of 1015mb. We believe the storm has a Dvorak rating of T2.5, although possibly turning subtropical, which means we cannot use Dvorak for deciding intensity anymore. T2.5 also does equal 40mph.
Forecasts
- The storm is expected to continue along the high-pressure ridge, making it go northwest and will turn extratropical as it gets closer to the United Kingdom.
(maybe) More updates soon.
PKTC Hurricane Tracker - Google Slides
This is Hurricane News by PKTC
Tropical Activity Update (June 25th)
- 95E - 95E rapidly organizing as it heads west. Deep convection and tighter rotation visible in the system on satellite imagery. Development Index: 4/5 (40% / 2d)
- Remnant Andrea - Remnant Andrea dying off (or it already has) as it heads closer to the United Kingdom. Impacts in the United Kingdom and/or Scandanavia can include gale-force winds, moderate to major rainfall, and more.
EPAC ACE: 16.1
NATL ACE: 0.2
More updates to come
Notes to remember:
- AW## is designated by PKTC unofficially
- ACE tracker is not always up to date.
- I AM NOT THE EXPERT. Do not always be taking my word on things, for I might be wrong.
Hurricane Tracker:
PKTC Hurricane Tracker - Google Slides
